Gartner warned that misconfigured AI embedded in cyber-physical systems could trigger a shutdown of national critical infrastructure in a G20 country by 2028, driven by AI failures rather than malicious hacking. The scenario focuses on AI-enabled operational environments where automated decision-making and control can propagate errors rapidly from digital systems into physical processes.
The risk is framed around engineering and configuration mistakes—such as flawed update scripts, incorrect parameters (e.g., a misplaced decimal), or misinterpreted sensor data—causing unsafe actions, equipment damage, cascading outages, and supply-chain destabilization. Gartner highlighted that modern critical environments (including operational technology/ICS, industrial automation, IIoT, robots, drones, and AI-assisted power grid balancing) are increasingly reliant on AI, making resilience, validation, and change-control for AI-driven control logic a critical safety and security concern.

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Gartner warned that a misconfigured AI embedded in cyber-physical systems could cause a national critical infrastructure shutdown in a G20 country by 2028. The analysis highlighted cascading physical impacts in sectors such as power, transportation, healthcare, and finance, driven by configuration errors and weak governance rather than malicious hacking.
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